January 19, 2023: Russian President Vladimir Putin is revealing another mobilization round as Russia is planning to bolster its armed forces in Ukraine, analysts believe.
“Putin is ready to announce a second mobilization wave to expand his army in the future days, possibly by January 18,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would deliver a speech in his hometown of St. Petersburg to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Soviet forces overcoming the Nazi siege of Leningrad. Watchers noted that this could be an apt date to announce such a mobilization.
“Putin is fond of using symbolic dates to manage the Russian people, and a few Russian pro-war mil bloggers noted that he will seize this opportunity to either show mobilization or war with Ukraine,” the ISW stated in their daily analysis of the Ukraine war.
Russia has repeatedly stated that it would not embark on a second mobilization wave following a partial draft of military reservists that called 300,000 men in the previous September. This sparked consternation in Russia and prompted many eligible for the current to flee the country.
Fears of another potential mobilization increased with the onset of winter. Putin stated in December that he experienced no need for a second draft, which noted that half of the men had already been moved to Ukraine while the different people were in training centres.
“Under these rules, talk regarding any additional mobilization measures simply makes no sense,” he said.
Last Friday, Ukrainian defence ministry intelligence officials said they believed preparations for a second wave of mobilization were underway, suspecting Russia is pointing to an army of two million people.
“Military intelligence of Ukraine does take care that the leadership of Russia will announce one more wave of mobilization in the future days,” intelligence officials stated, adding that another 500,000 Russians will be called up to “create strategic reserves.”
“Preparations for announcing the next wave of mobilization in Russia are already underway. At the legislative level, modifications are being made to the Russian Federation laws regulating mobilization. Functional training of training centres is also underway,” intelligence officials added.