September 19, 2022: -The U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of a brutal downturn if the Federal Reserve doesn’t put the brakes on its rate hikes, billionaire CEO Barry Sternlicht said.

To tame inflation, the central bank has boosted interest rates this year and is widely expected to hike them by 75 basis points in the coming week. This week, consumer prices rose 0.1% instead of the 0.1% decline economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting.”

If the Fed keeps this up, they will have a serious recession, and people will lose their jobs,” he said.

Consumer confidence is terrible, and CEO confidence is “miserable,” Sternlicht said. He said supply chain issues are being resolved, and inventories are now backing up in warehouses, teaching to massive discounting.

“The CPI, the data they are looking at, is old data. All they have to do is call Doug McMillon at Walmart, call any of the real estate fellas and ask what is happening to our apartment rents,” he said, pointing out that the rent growth rate is slowing.

The continuation of rate hikes will also cause a “major crash” in the housing market, Sternlicht predicted. According to Mortgage News Daily, the once-hot real estate market is swiftly slowing down, with mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan over 6%, up from 3.29% at the start of the year.

While the Fed’s target is 2%, inflation should run at 3% to 4%, Sternlicht said.

“Inflation that is driven by wage growth is fabulous. We should want wages to go up,” he said.

“You can pay higher rents and buy equipment; you can go to the restaurant if you have high wage growth.”

As for when the “serious recession” will reach, Sternlicht thinks it is imminent.

“I think the fourth quarter. I think right now,” he said. “You are going to see cracks everywhere,” he added.